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When I was asked to talk about what technology would be like in the year 2017 to coincide with a special report on 'Nightly News' tonight, I knew it would be an almost impossible task. The prediction business is notoriously fickle and when it comes to technology, it can be particularly hazardous. In my office, I have a collection of dead tech - all major, multimillion-dollar bets placed by major companies sure of themselves.
Before we look ahead 10 years, let's look back a decade.
Here's a list of technology products and services that were not mainstream or popular as of May
1997 (some didn't exist except as a twinkle in some dreamer's eye):
Accessible satellite imagery blogs
BlackBerry
Bluetooth
Cable modem/DSL
hi-def TV, hi-def DVD, hi-def radio
home networks
iPod
Google
GPS
MySpace
MP3
Portable digital media players
Satellite radio
Smart wireless phones
Text messaging
USB flash/thumb drives
TiVo
Video chat
Voice over IP
Wikipedia
Xbox
(That's just a start. If you have other suggestions, post them in the comments section below).
I believe we are going to have as many exciting developments happen in the next decade as we did the one that just passed. Of course, if I could pinpoint what they were, I'd be able to retire. What I do know is that technology will continue to get cheaper, faster and better in the years ahead. But with that will come more dangers - from cybercrime to loss of privacy. One thing we can do is pay close attention to developments and try to learn as much as we can.
Craig Bamsey, CEO Infinia Foresight, a company that helps others think about the future, told me that in my attempt to predict the future, "you will be directionally right, but specifically wrong."
That it's easy to guess some of the big generalities, but you are going to be wrong on specifics, dates, etc.
I spoke to folks at three companies that think a lot about the future - Microsoft (a partner of NBC News in MSNBC.com), IBM and Google (a company formally born in 1998) - and here are glimpses of the future.
IBM showed me a demo of its instant translator software that allowed me to say phrases into a computer and Mandarin phrases were spit out in print and via audio. I said, "Where's the bathroom," and it came out just right. In 10 years, this could be on a handheld device, allowing you to speak with those whose languages you don't speak. It could work for any language, anywhere, any time.
Microsoft is big into the home of the future. One thing they predict is that it's going to be a place where your boring old walls will come alive with dynamic, ever-changing wallpaper, able to match your moods or whatever else you like. I saw video of a child's bedroom in which you could bounce a ball on the wall and it shows a pretend "splat." My 4-year-old twins would have endless fun with that. No, wait, they'd be 14 by then and are unlikely to share my ideas on what's cool.
Google sees a world where all your digital stuff - documents, e-mail, videos, photos - all living in a digital "cloud." You don't have to sit down at a computer and type with a keyboard. You will be able to access it all via a cellphone-sized gadget in a secure way, from anywhere.
And, yes, robots will be a serious part of our lives. What I am really hoping for is the laundry-folding robot, which is being worked on right now. See, the future sounds better already.
I want to thank my friend and former student Arik Hesseldahl of BusinessWeek for his help with the 1997 tech list. I turned to him because he graduated in May 1997. He also points out one item aspect of GPS and how government rulings can impact how a technology flourishes or dies:
"GPS existed [prior to 1997], but was deliberately made inaccurate for non-military users under a federal directive known as 'selective availability'
that was eliminated in 2000 by order of President Clinton; prior to this, consumer GPS was good enough for hiking, but nowhere near good enough for in-car navigation, let alone geocaching."
If you are certain of where things are going, you might want to make a "long bet" at LongBets.org - and to read some of the ones already there.
And post your predictions for the future below, please.
Sree Sreenivasan is the Dean of Students and Associate Professor at the Columbia University journalism professor and also serves as our New York affiliate WNBC's technology reporter.
Read more from Sree Sreenivasan
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ABOUT TONIGHT...
Well,
From now on, I suppose that the life will change a lot.
Fernando (Sent Jun 11, 2007 9:52:08 AM)
To 'Year 2017' Show
Life 10 years from now will be not what you are portraying. For the accurate picture of 2017 go to www.motionmetrics.org
Edward Romanoff
Preventive Science Institute (PSI)
uschapter@yahoo.com
Edward Romanoff, San Francisco California (Sent May 22, 2007 12:49:59 AM)
In 1997, I lived in the tampabay area and I had cable modem internet access since 1996. Thanks to Time Warner Cable the tampabay area was the third place in the U.S. to have high speed cable modem internet.
w. david (Sent May 16, 2007 12:55:38 AM)
there should be impact of Human Embedded Hardware. Personal digital equipments should decrease in size until they could be hidden within the body (eyebrow embedded cameras & ears-embedded phones & retina-embedded dispays & somewhere-embedded antennas for GPS&Wireless networking :-) ?) As a result Core of personal computing systems should be somehow connected with nervous systems to control them not through "keyboard&mouse interfaces" but just by the will.
Mikhail M., Moscow, Russia. (Sent May 15, 2007 3:21:40 PM)
The Metaverse will quickly rise up as the forum of Globalization in the coming years, a place where langauge and distance holds little relevance to real-time, "face-to-face" intereation with people from across the globe. As software becomes almost entirely free, the real markets will be in creating new peripherals that will enable us to engage and immerse ourselves in this new world. http://www.in8years.com/in_8_years/2007/04/the_new_periphe.html
Jonathan, Freeport, Maine (Sent May 15, 2007 8:04:11 AM)
You included Wikipedia, but what about YouTube, Flickr, and political blogs. Getting news via RSS, or real simple syndication, will probable spell the death of the traditional new paper.
Another one affecting news is the availability of camera phones and the ability to capture video with them. CNN's IReport allows for the general public to get involved in the news. When news happens now, it on 25 different amateur camera's.
(Sent May 14, 2007 5:35:32 PM)
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