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Editor's note: Portions of Mike's analysis were excerpted in First Read, the NBC blog that covers politics 24/7. Here's the rest of it.
Many aides and lobbyists believe that President Bush and Democrats -- should they take control of the House -- will have at least a few areas where compromise is possible over the next several months before the 2008 fight begins in earnest. The following is gleaned from several conversations at the end of last week.
To the extent that Democrats will have a "mandate" should they win control of one or both houses of Congress, surely it would be to do something to force the president's hand on Iraq policy. To a lesser extent, if Democrats try really hard they might be able to read a rejection of Bush's Social Security plan into the election results.
But this appears to be a protest election... more a rejection of President Bush than an endorsement of Democrats. As such, Democratic "political capital" won't be available to be squandered. So the president and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., will essentially be faced with the same choice over the next year, before the 2008 race overwhelms everything: they can start that battle now, pick fights to fire up the base and "win by losing" legislatively. Or they can find some areas of common ground and "triangulate" to pass a few high profile items.
Several top Democratic aides and lobbyists polled last week think it will be a bit of the former, but more of the latter. For the president's part, what do he and his legacy have to gain by politics as usual? Why not take what chance you have to avoid the grim prospects of spending the next two years ceding the limelight to presidential hopefuls in the Senate while your agenda languishes?
For the Democrats, those in-the-know see a third message from voters come Wednesday: We are sick of partisan gridlock. If true, then the time is right for compromise.
So what issues constitute the middle ground between the president and Democrats? One obvious issue is immigration policy, where the votes will certainly be there to pass the president's goal of a path to citizenship and a guest worker program. Another might be extension of some of the tax cuts passed in Bush's first term that are set to expire after 2010, the $1,000 per child tax credit and "marriage penalty" relief, for example.
The Democratic caucus is likely to remain about 70% liberal, and the base that they represent will be calling for payback for 12 years of oppression at the hands of the GOP. But don't expect people like Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., who is in line to head the premier investigative committee in the House, to overreach. Every Democrat that I spoke with on this topic over the last days has mentioned the name Dan Burton, by way of illustrating what they would like to avoid: turning the committee room into a circus. Having said that, investigations into Halliburton's Iraq contracts is an obvious and likely place for them to start, given the amount of attention Waxman has given to this topic over the past three years.
Neither base will be happy with Bush and Pelosi making nice. But as a matter of politics and strategy, this is what many smart people both on and off the Hill are expecting for the coming year.
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I don’t think this election is a surprise or the “big referendum” the news pundits are making it out to be. Admittedly I am a Republican (and a Christian), but I do not count myself with the religious right. Both parties are full of hypocrisy, Nancy Pelosi being the biggest hypocrite of all with here millions of dollars and employment of un-documented workers for her wine vineyards. If Pelosi and her extremist followers had there way we regular folk (she and her pals would be exempt) would be driving around in horse and buggy and working by candle light so as to not harm the environment.
The interesting thing about the large switch of congressional seats is unlike the pundits claim of a referendum, this is quite normal in two ways; One it is common for the party in power (President) to loose seats in the midterm; Two every president since the Civil War has lost seats in a big way during war time, and this includes Roosevelt in WWII (considered to be a popular war?) and Lincoln in the Civil War. And I personally think Lincoln was our greatest president, the Emancipation Proclamation was very un-popular and as important as the Civil War was in holding our nation together, it was neither popular or a good vs. evil war (unlike WWII in my opinion), there were plenty of issues on both sides.
Carl Strohmeyer, Grants Pass, Oregon (Sent Nov 8, 2006 6:26:10 PM)
I am so disappointed. Pelosi is not qualified to be the speaker of the house. In an interview a few weeks ago, she spoke about hearings,pointing fingers, figuring out how we got into this mess? This means, she is going waste time and more money blaming instead of being a true leader and moving forward. As a woman who is an Iraqi Vet. and a business woman, I am embarrassed. I was hoping the first speaker of the house would have management and leadership experience. What does she have to offer other than finger pointing. Besides, the stock market is above 12,000 for now. If it drops under her leadership, she needs to reisgn.
(Sent Nov 8, 2006 9:15:11 AM)
You are right Mr. Covone and the more you talk about them the more mad they get so I suggest you keep your mouth shut. Bush has a plan for Iraq but he is not going to tell you or me because then they would know. SHH... I think I hear them now...
Jeremy, Central, Texas (Sent Nov 6, 2006 5:15:55 PM)
Phillip nees to contact the FBI with what he knows, since he claims they are "ready to attack."
Bush and his followers keep claiming we are in a WWII situation, fighting the battle of the century. But unlike WWII, when there was an Imperial Japanese Navy in the Pacific and a Nazi war machine across the Atlantic, both of which were real threats to us, we currently face a rag-tag bunch of Islamic extremists who have the ability to launch attacks about once a decade on us. They could not even defend Afghanistan, a stronghold halfway across the world. Unlike the Nazis, they do not have one of the most advanced industrial nations behind them. No bombers, no ICBM, no submarines, no WMDs. Not exactly a group that poses an imminent threat to our civilization.
And Bush and company admit as much by their actions. Note how quickly they called off the hunt for bin Laden in Afghanistan when they turned the guns on Iraq. Note how they continue to call for tax cuts - in the middle of a war they claim is a "struggle for civilization." If the war rhetoric was true, this would not be happening.
Jack, Scottsdale, AZ (Sent Nov 6, 2006 3:16:29 PM)
Compromise? W. compromise? Ya gotta be kiddin'. If anything, the imposed subpoena power is going to make a veritable castle out of the White House with imposed "moats" of unwitting subordinates declining to assist any congressional impasse! Don't forget that Rove will stall at any gesture given by the expected democratic majority! Compromise? You need a Valium or better yet some kind of glasses without rose coloring! Compromise? The White House is looking more like the Bastille!
Simpliticus (Sent Nov 6, 2006 3:06:12 PM)
aPresident Bush and the Democrats have exactly the same policy on Iraq, which is to get out as soon as humanly possible. I have no doubt that we will be out of Iraq by the time the election comes around, so the Democrats should be wary of making Iraq the main plank of their platform.
Ian Burgess, Oakville, Ontario (Sent Nov 6, 2006 2:50:41 PM)
Philip - get a grip on yourself. The GOP created the division in this country. Wake up and smell the treason. I fear BushCo - not Al-Qaeda. Since BushCo is so fond of calling us "at war," I say we invoke the "At war" penalty for treason. (P.S. How many babies have you adopted?)
Black Flag (Sent Nov 6, 2006 2:33:38 PM)
Do you really know what you're saying? Are you really in favor of such philosofies as saving the trees, and killings unborn babies? Are you really in favor of creating life to destroy it? Are you really wanting the US to risk deplomacy, when terrorists are not willing to talk? These are people that are willing to die for what they believe and it does nort matter what you, I or anyone else thinks. Have you not been watching? These people have not only attacked us on our ground, they have even come to our country and mocked us on our own territory. What we need is another President that will not be a coward and will respond appropriately to these terrorists and do whatever it takes to defend us. We do not want or need another Bill Clinton who only sent a firecracker over to scare them after they bobed the towwers the first time. WAKE UP AMERICA, THEY ARE READY TO ATTACK US AND THE ONLY THIG THEY ARE WAITING FOR IS THE DIVISION AND WEAKNESS THEY HAVE CREATED IN OUR COUNTRY TO ERRODE US!!! CAN YOU NOT SEE IT?
Philip Covone, McDonough, GA (Sent Nov 6, 2006 2:25:59 PM)
I agree - how about House arrest until the end of his term - that's all the compromise he deserves.
John Doe (Sent Nov 6, 2006 2:19:26 PM)
To not go after Bush would be a grave mistake for Democrats. It would cost them in 08
(Sent Nov 6, 2006 1:32:39 PM)
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