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A news story that hit the wires this weekend with little notice may in fact signal an uptick in the strategic chess game that is the Middle East.
Iran announced that it had fired an “anti-ship missile” from one of its Kilo-class submarines during a military exercise in the northern Arabian Sea not far from the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf.
The missile, known as a Thaqeb -- Farsi for Saturn -- flew less than a mile and most news reports suggested that it would raise the stakes in the Gulf because it gave Iran another weapon against ships transiting the area.
But U.S. intelligence has quietly told senior officials there is more to be concerned about with this test. The Thaqeb, it noted in a briefing, is “a long-range missile” and thus raised the possibility of Iran being capable of equipping its three Russian-supplied Kilos with cruise missiles. Cruise missiles can be fired, with few modifications, from submarine torpedo tubes.
The test comes a few days after the Israelis announced the order of two more Dolphin-class submarines from Germany, which would give it a fleet of five. The first two, according to U.S. intelligence, are cruise-missile capable. According to others in the military sphere, those cruise missiles are either nuclear capable or could be.
Some reports indicate that as early as 2000, the Israelis test-fired long-range cruise missiles in the Indian Ocean, the same general area that Iran tested its missile this weekend.
All of this raises yet a new fear: a submarine war between the two countries -- one that ultimately could involve a nuclear standoff.
In the world of nuclear strategy, the superpower model has always been the triad —- the three-sided nuclear deterrent force, a hydra-headed monster capable of a lethal strike even when two of the three heads have been lopped off -- a true doomsday machine.
The idea, embraced by the first five members of the nuclear club, calls for a nation to have nuclear-armed bombers, missiles and, most importantly for the survival of the deterrent, submarines. Taking out a nation’s bomber force on the ground or pulverizing a nation’s missile field is simple compared to finding and then destroying stealthy submarines, each of which could obliterate the attacking countries' cities within minutes.
It was the strategy that drove the U.S. to build Tridents, the Soviet Union to build Deltas and Typhoons. But until now, no third-world nation has succeeded in matching that grand strategy. India and Pakistan have always claimed to have plans. North Korea may not need much of a deterrent at all since a nuclear attack on the small country would wreak havoc on its neighbors, who are at most a few hundred miles away.
The mission of the submarines has been long rumored in military journals and even the Israeli press. Israel even refers to them as “national deterrent” assets, a clear indication of their nuclear role.
In spite of the open-secret nature of the program, Israel has received other help that has moved its submarine deterrent forward. Israeli scientists studying at U.S. weapons labs even worked out command and control issues.
As far back as 1987, U.S. officials were aware that Israel was playing with blue-green lasers, critical to communicating with submarines in time of war. A team of U.S. defense analysts found the research underway at Soreq, Israel’s equivalent of Los Alamos National Laboratory, that year. Two years later, a Congressional report found that one of the scientists working on the lasers had done extensive research on them while studying at the real Los Alamos, part of a group of Israeli scientists involved in cooperative military research.
The defense analysts and congressional researchers knew the value of the blue-green lasers was limited to submarine communications. In situations in which war was imminent or had actually begun, aircraft or deployable rockets carrying the lasers would be fired to bring the submarines to periscope depth for further orders from satellites, which Israel also has.
Blue-green lasers, unlike their better-known red cousins, can penetrate to depths of 3,000 feet over a range of 6,200-square-miles. As long as Israel knows roughly where the submarines are located, and where to deploy the lasers, word would get through.
The question is where would Israel -- or Iran -— deploy those submarines, and how. Israel could send its subs into the Gulf where, with long range missiles, it could hit most Iranian targets. Iran, on the other hand, could move their subs into the Red Sea or even the Mediterranean Sea, giving it a clear shot at any Israeli target. Israel might have a harder time of it. It would have to either transit the Suez Canal on the surface, or send the subs on an arduous trip around the Cape of Good Hope and back up to the Gulf.
Military analysts note that the Israeli Dolphins and the Iranian Kilos are diesel subs and would require multiple trips to the surface during any significant transit, thus opening them to attack en route.
Still, the week’s events are troubling to U.S. officials. The intelligence about both the Iranian missile and the Israeli sub purchases were widely distributed not just in intelligence circles, but throughout the national security arena. It’s unlikely that we have heard the last about either.
Read more from Robert Windrem
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North Korean Nuclear Test Site Japan thinks that North Korea is getting ready to test a nuclear weapon.
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Chris in PA, I am afraid your data is incomplete. Yes the Indian Air Force bested the US fighters in the "War Games" of which you speak. However, the "games" had some interesting rules: the US pilots were outnumbered as much as 3-to-1 in some engagements and always outnumbered to some degree; The Indians were alowed to use an AWACS system and the Americans were not; the Indians were allowed to use the full scope of their offensive repetoir while the Americans were limited to missiles with a range of less than 40km (the real range of US missiles used by F-15s is over 100km); the Indians were allowed to fire-and-forget thier missiles and the US pilots were not, being forced to track them all the way to their targer before engaging another (a severe disadvantage when outnumbered). Not an overly fair test. Of course the US Air Force will allow the test because they are lobbying hard for funding for a new fighter (the extremely capable F-22 Raptor - actually the best fighter on the horizon, by far). A more equitable test showed the Eurofighter Typhoon as the best fighter around (of course it was conducted by a British firm and England does have quite a stake in the Typhoon's success), with the Su-35 Flanker, Dassalt Rafale and the F-15C Eagle at comparable levels. Of course, problems exist in this test as well(as there would be in any mock situation).
Is there too much ego and politics involved in the decision-making progress about military hardward - most certainly. Could the US do better than it is - definitely! Is there really a nation out there that can match the US for military might - not a chance. Can some of these nations hurt us - of course. We are not so far ahead as to be untouchable; to think this would be as ludicrous as thinking the Indian Air Force is superior to the US Air Force, or that China could invade Taiwan, much less the US (what are they going to do swim?).
In conclusion, we should not buy into all this fear-mongering coming out of Washington, there is most certainly an ulterior motive, but we should not rest on our laurels either: and not just militarily. The rest of the world is catching up, and in some areas has already passed us. We need to do better. We are still the preeminent power, by far, and we need to act like it. Not by bullying other nations into following our lead, but by making sound, impartial decisiions for the good of the world. A World that is prosperous and secure is good for the American economy (except maybe the defense industry - our current Administration is making sure that industry stays strong). The United States is in the unique position to actually live up to our rhetoric and actually have a moral policy. Kudos to Jack in Scottsdale for suggesting the US be impartial in something, such a policy would go a long way toward showing the World the United States is not the most hypocritical nation in the World.
Peter Toney, Alexandria, Virginia (Sent Feb 6, 2007 11:01:15 AM)
Jack of Scottsdale for President!!! From your mouth to God's ear!!
M David, Fresno Calif (Sent Sep 18, 2006 12:13:35 PM)
Your statement, "Military analysts note that the Israeli Dolphins and the Iranian Kilos are diesel subs and would require multiple trips to the surface during any significant transit, thus opening them to attack..."is inaccurate.
It is of public record that the new Israeli "Dolphin" class subs ie German U-212 will be equipped with AIP, enabling them to stay submerged for maximum periods of 15 to 17 days.(the range reflect variances in operating conditions) in fact, earlier this year a German U-212 set a world record for their voyage between Eckernfoerde in Germany to Rota, Spain......without surfacing. This info is easily obtaibable by any search.
Dan B., Fremont CA (Sent Sep 8, 2006 3:05:37 AM)
In your article you say:
"The idea, embraced by the first five members of the nuclear club, calls for a nation to have nuclear-armed bombers, missiles and, most importantly for the survival of the deterrent, submarines. Taking out a nation’s bomber force on the ground or pulverizing a nation’s missile field is simple compared to finding and then destroying stealthy submarines, each of which could obliterate the attacking countries' cities within minutes.
You need to remember that to fight this issue of hidden submarines the US and USSR made subs that were called "killers" (Remember Hunt for Red October?). Their job was to find and continually track the opponents nuclear subs. If war happened, the killer was in place to take out the opponents nuclear sub. Even with this incompetent administration I would be surprised if we were not already shadowing Irans few subs with our many killer subs, tracking their every move and ready to sink them if the word came down. For Iran to counter our superior submarine fleet and tactics, they need a lot more subs, a lot more experience and about 50 years. Don't let the administration's hype scare you. If you understand the complete picture there is little to fear militarily from Iran.
Sully, Washington, DC (Sent Sep 7, 2006 9:42:44 AM)
The US government's current Mideast strategy, which is to support and arm Israel to the teeth and green light their every action, will never lead to peace in the region.
The war in Iraq, rather than cowing the Iranians, has only demonstrated to them that they had better develop WMDs to protect themselves. And the more weapons the region possesses, the more bloodshed is likely.
I think, however, that peace could be achieved both in the short and long terms. But it would require real US leadership and a disengagement from Israel.
Here's what a future President could do: Pick up the phone and call the Israeli Prime Minister. Inform him that we are freezing all funding to Israel immediately. The funding will resume when the Palestinean Prime Minister notifies us that a peace agreement has been signed that is acceptable to them. Hang up the phone.
Call the Palestinean Prime Minister. Inform him of what has just happened. Then tell him that we will send the Palestineans funding that matches our support of Israel, but only after the Israeli Prime Minister informs us they have signed a peace agreement that is acceptable to them.
Next, hold a news conference and inform the world of our bold action, and that from now on we intend to be a fair broker for peace in the region and will not favor either side in the conflict.
I predict that peace would break out within a matter of 6 months between Israel and the Arabs without our firing a shot. Our actions would also undermine Islamic extremists worldwide, for moderate Muslims would praise our change of heart and support our actions.
Jack, Scottsdale, AZ (Sent Aug 28, 2006 4:18:27 PM)
Hi Robert,
Yes, I've heard about the blue-green laser able to penetrate water. Couldn't that also be used to scan for other subs instead of sonar? I would think so.
I know you have length restrictions, but you should also let people know just how advanced "Diesel submarines" are these days. The Germans make the very best non-nuclear submarines in the world. They are actually quieter than a nuclear sub! They have many countermeasures to ward off an attack - such as a towed decoy system too. They are also harder to find because they are so much smaller. Range is not a requirement in most situations.
People have also chosen to ignore Soviet/Russian weapons as being inferior but that is a huge mistake and largely incorrect. They've had developed Mack 2 stealth anti ship missiles easily able to sink a carrier not to mention a simple oil tanker. The 600 mph torpedo Iran tested is equally effective!
US weapons are actually inferior to many other counties in the world. During recent war games in India, Russian Su-30s (an amazing top notch aircraft) bested US pilots. The F-15 eagle is 30 years old for god’s sake. The F-18 was originally designed in 1966 and is so far behind the times (even after all the upgrades) that it is an embarrassment to even operate. All nations in the world have since switched to the Swedish "Canard forward" concept in aviation where small wings are placed ahead of the main wing - not behind it. This has MANY advantages! All of our weapon systems are old or conceptually out of date.
I could easily go on about who’s got better weapons than we do but I think you got the point. The EU Euro fighter Typhoon is the aircraft to beat as is their Stealth NH90 transport helicopter, their Stealth Attack helicopter (the tiger), as is their tanks (Leopard/Leclarc), as are their subs, and IFV’s! Wake up America – you’re fallen so far behind while thinking you’re so far ahead that it’s not funny. Where are the tallest buildings, longest bridges, and largest hydro-electric dams in the world these days? Not in the US, that is for sure! The problem – too much ego and too much political influence in the decision making process…
Chris Eldridge, Harrisburg PA (Sent Aug 28, 2006 3:12:19 PM)
I think you mean "submarine nuclear war" because, as you state, the Dolphins and Kilos are diesel submarines with nuclear weapon capabilities.
I've said for a long time the US was too dependent on nuclear subs - we should be buying Kilos, too. They're only vulnerable on the surface (snorkle depth)if you can detect and attack them -not easy. They can operate better in the shallow waters and sit on the bottom - something a nuke boat can't do.
Kilos are cheap compared to the SSNs the US navy likes, and the Russians are in a selling mood. We could do the final outfitting in this country and specify 21" torpedo tubes for our weapons.
As a former SSN sonarman, nothing gives you the willies like taking on a diesel boat on its batteries. If you can stay undetected until they need to snorkle you stand an excellent chance - if you blunder across their path, you don't.
D.D.D.D.S.E.K.F.T.D. (SS) (Sent Aug 28, 2006 2:43:33 PM)
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