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Reading the political tea leaves

The tea leaf-reading department here at NBC is looking at how the current U.S. political climate might affect the two parties' odds in key upcoming elections. Polite "no, thank you's" from two strong would-be Republican candidates for the Senate have Washington buzzing that the GOP's bumpy ride these days is affecting candidate recruitment for 2006. We're setting our sights a little nearer — on the upcoming elections November 8, now less than a month away, and the chance that voter turnout will be lopsided, with one party feeling a lot more motivated than the other.

It's not hard to list reasons why the GOP's conservative base might not feel much like voting right now: Harriet Miers' much-debated qualifications; Karl Rove's fourth grand jury appearance; Tom DeLay's indictment; Bill Frist's stock sale; an expanding federal government; a Washington spending spree on hurricane relief; and delayed votes on tax cuts and major tax reform.

Beyond feeling deflated over these developments, the base might have a touch of combat fatigue, between two huge pushes to get out the vote in 2002 and 2004 and the hard-fought judicial wars this year. It's possible that President Bush and his party may have gone to the well so many times that their troops are worn out.

We certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility that conservative voters might regain some spring in their step by 2006. But to the extent that they don't turn out in force for a toss-up contest like the governor's race in Virginia, or the battles over parental notification and paycheck protection in California, then the talk on November 9 will be about a dispirited, weary Republican base — and how that is a hallmark of a "six-year itch" election in which the president's party suffers big losses.

Editor's note: Elizabeth Wilner and the NBC News Political Unit write a daily briefing on politics called "First Read." You can read it here and sign up to receive it via e-mail here.

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Adjusting to the 'new' New Orleans

The city and state here estimate that a million refrigerators will need to be replaced. When the power went out, the food left in them rotted so severely that the stuff became toxic waste, and leached into the plastic and piping. There are hundreds of them on every street, even in areas that are not flooded and only lost power. I think the number will be higher, because most people had more than one, and that doesn't count restaurants that had small models in addition to the large commercial ones.

Unbelievably, traffic is becoming a problem again. I have always found New Orleans to be a difficult place to get around, (the streets were mostly laid out in the 1800's, at least downtown) and for the past six weeks, traffic law abeyance has been interesting to say the least. Driving the wrong way on a one-way, or up the wrong entrance ramp, cutting across the interstate, and going the wrong way on I-10 or the cross-town expressway has been the norm. There were so few people in the city right after the storm, you just put on the emergency flashers and were careful when you got to an intersection. After driving like that for a few weeks, you start to feel like that's the way it should be.

The most interesting thing for the past few days has been the smells. This weekend we were shooting a story next to a five-star restaurant that was being cleaned. Imagine a garbage can, filled with really ripe things, sealed up and left in the Louisiana sun for five weeks. Now open the can and crawl inside. That’s just about every eating establishment in the city, five-star to fast food; all had things rotting in the cooler. Walking through New Orleans was once a joy; you could smell the special of the day from each place, sometimes good, usually excellent. Now the smell of what's cooking fights with the stench of rotting food and garbage.

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Signs of life in New Orleans

The sun is setting over the top of the Superdome. I am in shorts and a T-shirt, going for my first jog through New Orleans since returning to this city nearly a month after covering the first days of Katrina's aftermath.

It's a gorgeous night.

The weather is cooler now. I have to watch for cars, but at least they're cars and not camouflaged Humvees with National Guard troops eyeing me suspiciously. When I left New Orleans on Sept. 10, it was a chaotic city seemingly without hope. Tonight, downtown is quiet, with just the faintest evening pulse.

As I run along Poydras Street -- one of the main strips here with big hotels that once fed the city's convention business -- I get the occasional awkward stare from cops and relief workers. Do I run funny? It's as if they have to remind themselves why someone might actually be running down a city sidewalk. "Oh my God, he's -- he's EXERCISING!" These are things people here have taken for granted for a long time.

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